Asia Awakens.....

Money makes the world go round...but what makes money go round? In theory, it has to be limited in supply so that it mirrors the supplies of goods and services that it is used to buy. Historically, gold was used to insure that the supply of ‘money’ did not outstrip the supplies of goods and services. But since 1971, gold has been out of the system. People only have their faith that the people who control paper will control it well. Yet, history also shows that they never do. The temptation to create too much ‘money’ has always been irresistible...which leads to a trend; paper money loses its value. Since the quantity of “money” is now increasing so rapidly, we expect this trend to accelerate. This is not to say there couldn’t be a period of deflation...in which currency actually gains value, for a time. But a deflationary period would probably only increase pressure on the financial authorities to increase the supply of currency. We would be surprised to see this experimental system survive for another 20 years.

Economic power is shifting from West to East. Just look at the Forbes list of billionaires...just read the papers...just look at where your cars and gadgets were made. Most of the economies of Asia are growing two to three times faster than those of the United States.

Coming to India, supposedly the land of snake charmers. One thing that would surprise you more if you dare peek closer is the Indian labor market.
“Yes...there are more than a billion people in India...” said Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach, “but just go and try to find someone. The labor market is very tight. People who have been to business school - if they’ve been to a good one - can get a job anywhere. Not just in India, but almost anywhere in the world. So they’re salaries are up at world levels. If you want someone to sweep your driveway...yes, that will be very cheap. But if you want someone to do the kind of work we do...well, you will pay almost as much as you would in America. Salaries are rising fast.”

This from Associated Press:
“An annual survey by Hewitt Associates revealed that Indian salaries are likely to rise an average 14.5 percent in 2007, with banks and financial services companies offering the biggest hikes.
“The Philippines is expected to come a distant second with salary increases averaging 8.3 percent, and in China, salaries are likely to rise 8.1 percent, the survey showed.

“While pay hikes are expected to moderate in most Asian countries during 2007, India will see an acceleration from last year’s average increase of 14 percent.

“‘The war for talent is becoming increasingly fierce in India,’ said Sharad Vishvanath, a Hewitt executive involved with the survey. ‘As a result, compensation plays an increasingly fundamental role in attracting talent and ensuring ongoing employee engagement.’

“Indian paychecks are expected to eventually reach the same levels as developed Asian economies like JapanSingapore, said the survey which looked at 1,500 Asian companies of which 580 are in India.”

Why should this trend come to an end? Why, in a globalized world, should a man’s labor in Chennai be worth less than a man’s labor in Detroit? Is the man in Detroit smarter? There is no reason to think so. Has he better tools? More information? More capital? Maybe in the past he did. But now no country has a locked-in advantage. That and shipping containers...and trade agreements...and low-cost air travel...and the rise of English as a world trade language.

Not that this trend is unlikely to continue. Asia is probably going to get rich. China already has the biggest single pile of money put together since Midas himself - more than $1 trillion. Naturally, as the Asians get rich, it is going to push the other trends along - they’re going to use vastly more energy. And they’re going to want to eat more meat...and drive more cars on more highways...

...and they’re probably also going to want to throw their weight around militarily. Nations mind their own business until they are big enough to begin minding other peoples’ business. Eventually, the Asians will begin spending their money on weapons...and start to flex their muscles. A prudent advice to U.S. leaders: Be nice to the Asians.